China's Ethanol Market to Experience Slight Growth with CAGR of +0.4% from 2024 to 2035 - News and Statistics - IndexBox

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IndexBox has just published a new report: China - Ethyl Alcohol - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

Driven by rising demand for ethanol in China, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 225M litres by the end of 2035. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $176M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $176M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

After two years of decline, consumption of ethyl alcohol increased by 74% to 216M litres in 2024. Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a slight decrease. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at 955M litres in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The value of the ethanol market in China soared to $167M in 2024, growing by 69% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $603M. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.

In 2024, production of ethyl alcohol in China skyrocketed to 236M litres, with an increase of 50% against the previous year. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a noticeable downturn. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at 315M litres in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol production surged to $211M in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a slight decline. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $305M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In 2024, after two years of decline, there was significant growth in supplies from abroad of ethyl alcohol, when their volume increased by 1,484% to 4.2M litres. Overall, imports saw a significant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 9,624%. Imports peaked at 1B litres in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol imports skyrocketed to $11M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports showed a significant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 3,559% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $518M. From 2019 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

The United States (119K litres), France (73K litres) and Germany (52K litres) were the main suppliers of ethanol imports to China, with a combined 93% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by France (with a CAGR of +33.7%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($718K), the United States ($654K) and the UK ($169K) appeared to be the largest ethanol suppliers to China, with a combined 77% share of total imports. Japan, France, Spain, Georgia, Indonesia and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 20%.

France, with a CAGR of +15.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% (4.1M litres) was the main type of ethyl alcohol supplied to China, with a 97% share of total imports. It was followed by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (112K litres), with a 2.7% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% imports amounted to +47.0%.

In value terms, undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% ($9.4M) constituted the largest type of ethyl alcohol supplied to China, comprising 87% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits ($1.5M), with a 13% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% imports amounted to +31.0%.

The average ethanol import price stood at $2.6 per litre in 2024, which is down by -65.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a deep setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 1,172% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $7.6 per litre in 2023, and then declined remarkably in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits ($13 per litre), while the price for undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% totaled $2.3 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by denatured ethyl alcohol (+10.4%).

In 2023, the average ethanol import price amounted to $7.6 per litre, with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a tangible increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 1,172% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Indonesia ($149 per litre), while the price for South Africa ($144 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+259.6%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, approx. 24M litres of ethyl alcohol were exported from China; declining by -27.2% compared with the year before. In general, exports showed a abrupt curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when exports increased by 1,626%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 367M litres. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol exports contracted to $24M in 2024. Overall, exports showed a perceptible setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 1,817%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $252M. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The Philippines (17M litres) was the main destination for ethanol exports from China, accounting for a 49% share of total exports. Moreover, ethanol exports to the Philippines exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Taiwan (Chinese) (2.7M litres), sixfold. Spain (2.5M litres) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 7.5% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to the Philippines totaled +16.3%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Taiwan (Chinese) (-10.4% per year) and Spain (-55.0% per year).

In value terms, the Philippines ($12M) emerged as the key foreign market for ethyl alcohol exports from China, comprising 43% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the Netherlands ($2.7M), with a 9.5% share of total exports. It was followed by Taiwan (Chinese), with an 8.3% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value to the Philippines amounted to +12.9%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (-6.2% per year) and Taiwan (Chinese) (-10.4% per year).

Undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% (24M litres) was the largest type of ethyl alcohol exported from China, accounting for a 97% share of total exports. It was followed by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (628K litres), with a 2.6% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% exports stood at -5.4%.

In value terms, undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% ($23M) remains the largest type of ethyl alcohol exported from China, comprising 97% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits ($704K), with a 3% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% exports amounted to -4.6%.

In 2024, the average ethanol export price amounted to $989 per thousand litres, surging by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated modest growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 an increase of 28%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $1.1 per litre. From 2015 to 2024, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably for the major types of exported product. In 2024, the product with the highest price was denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits ($1.1 per litre), while the average price for exports of undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% amounted to $963 per thousand litres.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for the following types: denatured ethyl alcohol (+2.4%).

In 2023, the average ethanol export price amounted to $833 per thousand litres, dropping by -12.8% against the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the average export price increased by 28%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $1.1 per litre. From 2015 to 2023, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1.1 per litre), while the average price for exports to South Korea ($681 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the Netherlands (+26.1%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the ethanol market in China. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

The Largest Import Supplying Countries

The Largest Destinations for Exports

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles