European Union's Ethyl Alcohol Market Projected to Reach $11B by 2035 with +1.3% CAGR - News and Statistics - IndexBox

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IndexBox has just published a new report: EU - Ethyl Alcohol - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The European Union's ethyl alcohol market is projected to experience an upward consumption trend over the next decade, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.3% in volume terms and +2.6% in value terms from 2024 to 2035. This growth is expected to bring the market volume to 9.9B litres and the market value to $11B by the end of 2035.

Driven by increasing demand for ethyl alcohol in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 9.9B litres by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $11B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

In 2024, consumption of ethyl alcohol increased by 16% to 8.6B litres, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. The total consumption indicated a moderate expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +39.2% against 2021 indices. The volume of consumption peaked in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

The value of the ethanol market in the European Union expanded significantly to $8.3B in 2024, picking up by 12% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption continues to indicate a resilient expansion. The level of consumption peaked in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were France (2.1B litres), Germany (1.7B litres) and Belgium (933M litres), together comprising 56% of total consumption.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Belgium (with a CAGR of +15.2%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($2.6B), Germany ($1.4B) and Poland ($602M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together comprising 55% of the total market. The Netherlands, Belgium, Hungary, Spain, the Czech Republic, Italy and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Belgium, with a CAGR of +16.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, the highest levels of ethanol per capita consumption was registered in Belgium (80 litres per person), followed by the Netherlands (35 litres per person), France (31 litres per person) and the Czech Republic (28 litres per person), while the world average per capita consumption of ethanol was estimated at 19 litres per person.

In Belgium, ethanol per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +14.7% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the Netherlands (+7.5% per year) and France (+4.6% per year).

In 2024, the amount of ethyl alcohol produced in the European Union expanded significantly to 6.2B litres, growing by 7.6% compared with the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 9%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 6.4B litres. From 2020 to 2024, production growth failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ethanol production reduced slightly to $6B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total production indicated notable growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -9.9% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 31% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $6.6B. From 2023 to 2024, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were France (1.4B litres), Germany (913M litres) and Hungary (757M litres), together accounting for 50% of total production. Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +17.9%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

After two years of growth, overseas purchases of ethyl alcohol decreased by -9.3% to 6.6B litres in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a prominent increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 29%. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at 7.3B litres in 2023, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, ethanol imports shrank rapidly to $5.6B in 2024. In general, imports, however, showed a pronounced increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when imports increased by 49%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $7.6B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

The countries with the highest levels of ethanol imports in 2024 were the Netherlands (1.4B litres), Germany (1.1B litres), France (1.1B litres) and Belgium (0.9B litres), together reaching 69% of total import. It was distantly followed by Spain (325M litres), constituting a 4.9% share of total imports. Sweden (273M litres), Italy (243M litres), Poland (189M litres), Denmark (163M litres) and Romania (160M litres) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Belgium (with a CAGR of +21.4%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($1.2B), France ($1.1B) and Germany ($974M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, with a combined 58% share of total imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, France, with a CAGR of +18.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% (5.4B litres) represented the key type of ethyl alcohol, creating 82% of total imports. It was distantly followed by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (1.2B litres), committing an 18% share of total imports.

Imports of undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (+5.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the European Union, with a CAGR of +5.8% from 2013-2024. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% ($4.7B) constitutes the largest type of ethyl alcohol imported in the European Union, comprising 83% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits ($923M), with a 17% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% imports totaled +5.1%.

In 2024, the import price in the European Union amounted to $846 per thousand litres, dropping by -14.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 16%. Over the period under review, import prices reached the peak figure at $1.1 per litre in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% ($860 per thousand litres), while the price for denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits amounted to $783 per thousand litres.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by undenatured ethyl alcohol (-0.5%).

In 2024, the import price in the European Union amounted to $846 per thousand litres, declining by -14.7% against the previous year. Overall, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the import price increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $1.1 per litre in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Denmark ($1 per litre), while Belgium ($433 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+1.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, shipments abroad of ethyl alcohol decreased by -25.2% to 4.2B litres, falling for the second year in a row after six years of growth. Total exports indicated notable growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -28.8% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 19%. The volume of export peaked at 5.9B litres in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol exports declined rapidly to $4B in 2024. Overall, exports, however, posted a notable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 29%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $6.5B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In 2024, the Netherlands (1.3B litres) was the main exporter of ethyl alcohol, making up 31% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Hungary (550M litres), Spain (458M litres), France (435M litres), Belgium (424M litres) and Germany (282M litres), together constituting a 51% share of total exports. Poland (168M litres) took a relatively small share of total exports.

Exports from the Netherlands increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Poland (+13.9%), Spain (+7.0%), Germany (+4.4%) and Hungary (+3.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Poland emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the European Union, with a CAGR of +13.9% from 2013-2024. Belgium experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, France (-5.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The Netherlands (+12 p.p.), Spain (+4.2 p.p.) and Poland (+2.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Belgium and France saw its share reduced by -3.5% and -14.6% from 2013 to 2024, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($1.3B) remains the largest ethanol supplier in the European Union, comprising 31% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by France ($448M), with an 11% share of total exports. It was followed by Hungary, with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the Netherlands amounted to +6.5%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: France (-4.9% per year) and Hungary (+3.4% per year).

Undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% was the main type of ethyl alcohol in the European Union, with the volume of exports reaching 3.7B litres, which was near 88% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (493M litres), mixing up a 12% share of total exports.

Exports of undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (+4.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the European Union, with a CAGR of +4.6% from 2013-2024. Denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (+2.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% saw its share reduced by -2.5% from 2013 to 2024, respectively.

In value terms, undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% ($3.5B) remains the largest type of ethyl alcohol supplied in the European Union, comprising 87% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits ($515M), with a 13% share of total exports.

For undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80%, exports increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2013-2024.

In 2024, the export price in the European Union amounted to $954 per thousand litres, reducing by -12.6% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 an increase of 19%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $1.1 per litre. From 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits ($1 per litre), while the average price for exports of undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume over 80% stood at $942 per thousand litres.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by undenatured ethyl alcohol (+0.2%).

In 2024, the export price in the European Union amounted to $954 per thousand litres, with a decrease of -12.6% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 19%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $1.1 per litre. From 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Germany ($1.1 per litre) and Poland ($1.1 per litre), while Hungary ($803 per thousand litres) and Belgium ($808 per thousand litres) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland (+1.5%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the ethanol market in the EU. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

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